It's only one poll - The Hill's survey of likely voters - but it could mean trouble for President Obama and the Democrats:

Only 27 percent of likely voters favor raising the nation's $14.3 trillion debt ceiling, while 62 percent oppose it, according to an exclusive poll for The Hill.

The poll found solid opposition from Republicans and also from independent voters, who are critical to President Obama's re-election in 2012.

Seventy-seven percent of likely GOP voters and 64 percent of independent voters said they don't want the debt ceiling to be raised. Even among Democrats, more oppose raising the ceiling (46 percent) than support it (42 percent).

Winning the congressional vote to raise the debt ceiling is a crucial test for the president. House and Senate Republicans are using the vote, which must take place soon, in an effort to secure deep spending cuts from the White House.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and White House officials warn of dire consequences if the debt ceiling is not raised.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke also warned lawmakers last week not to use the vote as a bargaining chip, saying it would be "catastrophic" if the nation defaulted. But the poll, conducted by Pulse Opinion Research among 1,000 likely voters, suggests the administration's message is not resonating beyond the Beltway.

The poll also asked about the stim bill. 48% to 36% believe the stim bill failed to create jobs, including 61% of indies.

It's not just administration officials and the Fed Chairman who are sounding the alarm about not raising the debt ceiling; respected economists from both sides of the aisle also warn of dire consequences if the US defaults.

But there are those few who point out there may be a way around default even if we don't raise the limit on debt. Accounting gimmicks and even a "pay as you go" government where government revenue as it comes in is used to pay off creditors is employed. Eventually, all of those schemes will run up against a hard ceiling and the US will officially be in default.

Is this something to wish for? Many will wish it were so - perhaps enough to prevent raising the ceiling. If that be the case, I guess we'll find out what happens together.