It's a good news - bad news poll. The bad news is that a paltry 29% of voters would blame the Dems for a shutdown, compared to 23% who would blame the GOP. The good news is that independents would blame the Dems by a nearly 2-1 margin; 34-19%.

The Hill:

However, there are dangers for both parties, the poll indicates. A plurality of voters, 43 percent, would blame both Republicans and Democrats if the lights go out at midnight on March 5. Forty-five percent of respondents said neither party would benefit politically from a shutdown.

This compares to 14 percent who think Democrats would benefit and 18 percent who said Republicans would.

These numbers are fairly consistent when just Republicans, Democrats or independents are asked. Forty-seven percent of Republicans think that neither party would benefit, while 42 percent of Democrats and 48 percent of independents agree.

Democrats were able to win the message war 15 years ago, pinning the blame on congressional Republicans. A new shutdown message war has been under way for several weeks as each side jockeys for position. Republican and Democratic leaders moved closer to a short-term deal Friday, though the tentative budget framework has not yet been embraced by rank-and-file members.

The ability of Republicans to exact deep cuts and of Democrats to preserve cherished programs largely depends on whether they have the nerve to take negotiations over the brink.

The biggest difference this time around is not "messaging." The voters have spoken plainly that they want the runaway federal budget brought under control. The GOP appears to be at least trying to cut spending while the Democrats have offered no concrete plan to bring the $1.5 trillion deficit down.

The cynicism of voters runs deep. A near majority believes that no party will succeed, thus no advantage will accrue to either the Democrats or Republicans.

The GOP better pull a budget rabbit out of its hat or that slim majority who would blame Democrats might easily flip.