What looked like a real long shot just a couple of months ago - GOP getting control of the senate - now appears within reach according to the latest polling from Rasmussen:

New polling in California moves that state's Senate race to Toss-Up from Leans Democrat.

Recent polling in Wisconsin moves that state's Senate race to Leans Republican from Toss-Up.

Current projections suggest that the Democrats would hold 48 seats after Election Day while the Republicans would hold 47. Five states are in the Toss-Up category (California, Illinois, Nevada, Washington, and West Virginia). All five Toss-Ups are seats currently held by Democrats.

Republicans have the edge in five Democratic-held Senate seats--Arkansas, Colorado, Indiana, North Dakota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

At the moment, no Republican-held seats appear headed for the Democratic column.

What happens if the GOP gets to 50 on election day by winning 3 of those 5 toss up races? Would Lieberman caucus with the Republicans thus giving them nominal control? 

The bidding for Joe's vote would be fierce but in the end, the Democrats have more to offer him. Also, the GOP's social agenda might be more than Lieberman would be willing to take on - he is very liberal on social issues.

It appears that either Nevada or Washington would have to be a surprise win for Republicans if they were to gain control of the senate. Their best shots in the toss up category are CA, IL, and WV. It would be a mild surprise if they took all three of those seats. But Harry Reid is still looking quite vulnerable and tossing Nevada in with the rest would allow the GOP to pull off the near miracle.

Hat Tip: Ed Lasky