« Don't call her 'Ma'am' - at least not until after she's defeated | Odds of GOP taking the House now 3 out of 4 »
PrintOctober 23, 2010
For Democrats, Newsweek retrieves a bouquet from the manure pile
There's always one joker in every deck of cards.
The Newsweek headline says it all:
NEWSWEEK Poll: Obama Approval Rating Jumps, Democrats Close ‘Enthusiasm Gap'With even Democratic pollsters and analysts predicting a huge GOP advantage (and every other poll showing Obama's approval ratings way below 50%), Newsweek has found a way to manipulate a poll that shows the opposite:
Despite doom-saying about Democrats’ chances in the midterms, the latest NEWSWEEK Poll (full results) shows that they remain in a close race with Republicans 12 days before Election Day, while the president’s approval ratings have climbed sharply. The poll finds that 48 percent of registered voters would be more likely to vote for Democrats, compared with 42 percent who lean Republican (those numbers are similar to those in the last NEWSWEEK Poll, which found Democrats favored 48 percent to 43 percent). President Obama’s approval ratings have jumped substantially, crossing the magic halfway threshold to 54 percent, up from 48 percent in late September, while the portion of respondents who disapprove of the president dropped to 40 percent, the lowest disapproval rating in a NEWSWEEK Poll since February 2010. However, his approval rating, which is notably higher than many recent polls of the president’s popularity, may be evidence of a closing “enthusiasm gap” more than a sea change in voter attitudes, and may not substantially affect Democrats’ fortunes come Election Day. In 1994, NEWSWEEK Polls showed a similar steep climb in President Clinton’s approval between late September and late October, but Democrats still suffered a rout in the midterms.If you click on "full results," you immediately see why this is a load of manure. More than half the respondents were "Registered voters" while every other poll worth its salt is tallying "likely voters" at this point in the campaign. Also, the split between Democratic and Republican respondents is laughable - an 8 point margin of difference with a curious inversion of how much weight is given to each party.
I'm sure the Kos Kids are thrilled with this poll. I've been getting emails from them all week saying that the polls are lying and that the Democrats are in great shape.
For the real picture, AT Political Correspondent Rich Baehr directs us to RealClearPolitics and their more realistic assessment; a GOP pickup margin that continues to climb, now reaching 60 seats in the House.
It may not go quite that high, but its a lot closer to reality than this piece of fiction published by Newsweek.
