PrintSeptember 28, 2010
New Senate polls are all good for GOP
John Raese is ahead of Joe Manchin West Virginia by 2% in a new survey (his second lead in a poll in recent days). Richard Blumenthal's lead over Linda McMahon is down to 3% (Quinnipiac) to 5% (Rasmusssen) in two new polls in Connecticut.
West Virginia is an inexpensive media state, and the GOP is pouring money in to help Raese. Connecticut is an expensive media state, but McMahon is self-funded. Dino Rossi is back almost even in Washington State -- one point back of Patty Murray in one poll, two points in another. All three races are very much in play (Real Clear Politics considers them all tossups)
Throw in North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where GOP candidates have solid leads, Colorado (narrow GOP lead), Nevada ( a tie), Illinois (narrow GOP lead), and you get 11 possible pickups. This does not include California, where Barbara Boxer has opened up a decent sized lead, or New York, where Kirsten Gillibrand may yet have a competitive race on her hands with Joe DioGuardi (two close polling results last week). Delaware may be gone, but others are popping up to replace it.
Update:
On the other hand, Kentucky is tightening. Two new polls show the Senate race much closer. Rasmussen has Paul up 15, but that is stale. Another oddity: Obama's approval has dropped everywhere but Rasmussen. Over last 4 days, Rasmussen's approval number for Obama has been: 45, 47, 48, and today 50. The highest since April. Since Rasmussen has 3 day sample, there could be one very big day for Obama in the mix.
Most of the year, Nate Silver has argued that Rasmusssen's numbers were more negative for Obama and the Dems because he used a likely voter screen, not registered voters (which others switch to about now), and that he has had a "house " effect of a 3 or 4 point GOP lean. Now others have caught up with Rasmussen, and passed him. Silver has underestimated the wave all year, especially in states like Wisconsin and, West Virginia. Rasmussen's generic ballot edge to GOP has also dropped to 6. There may be 50 House races decided by 5% or less. This is slightly scary -- could be great day or a big disappointment on November 2nd.
Update:
On the other hand, Kentucky is tightening. Two new polls show the Senate race much closer. Rasmussen has Paul up 15, but that is stale. Another oddity: Obama's approval has dropped everywhere but Rasmussen. Over last 4 days, Rasmussen's approval number for Obama has been: 45, 47, 48, and today 50. The highest since April. Since Rasmussen has 3 day sample, there could be one very big day for Obama in the mix.
Most of the year, Nate Silver has argued that Rasmusssen's numbers were more negative for Obama and the Dems because he used a likely voter screen, not registered voters (which others switch to about now), and that he has had a "house " effect of a 3 or 4 point GOP lean. Now others have caught up with Rasmussen, and passed him. Silver has underestimated the wave all year, especially in states like Wisconsin and, West Virginia. Rasmussen's generic ballot edge to GOP has also dropped to 6. There may be 50 House races decided by 5% or less. This is slightly scary -- could be great day or a big disappointment on November 2nd.
