The Morning After

By Thomas Lifson

The media spin is "anti-incumbent", but the reality is that voters are rebuking President Obama. Jay Cost of Real Clear Politics does a fine job of debunking the media meme.

But how many Republican incumbents are in severe jeopardy of losing their seat in Congress to a Democratic challenger?

I count one: Joseph Cao of New Orleans.

Meanwhile, I count more than 20 Democrats in the House and Senate who are in severe jeopardy. Lower the threshold from "severe" to "serious" jeopardy, and I count maybe four Republicans and more than 50 Democrats.

The White House is absolutely, positively correct that there is a divide between America and Washington - but what they fail to appreciate (or, more likely, they appreciate it but want to fake-out the press) is that Washington, D.C. now belongs to Barack Obama.

Cost also deals with the loss of the GOP establishment-backed candidate Grayson to Tea Party-backed insurgent Rand Paul in the race for the Kentucky Senate nomination:

No doubt that Republican incumbents are being rebuked across the country by their primary constituencies. But it's all about who is closer to the establishment, which is currently commanded by a Democratic President whose job approval rating has been under 50% in the RCP average for five months.

The single slender reed of hope for Democrats is the victory of Democrat Mark Critz over Republican Tim Burns in the special election to replace the late John Murtha. However, Critz ran his campaign rejecting ObamaCare and other liberal initiatives, and positioned himself to the right of Burns.

Critz will now go to Washington, DC and become a member of the Nancy Pelosi-led Democrat caucus in the House. Will he stand up and protest the radical policies? Will he vote with the GOP on major issues? The voters of Pennsylvania's 12^th District will have an opportunity to reconsider their backing of Critz in November.