The Institute for the Study of War projects the Iraq election results:

The race is extremely tight; Maliki's election list has a slim lead but his return as the Prime Minister is not a done deal. He still needs to form a governing coalition with at least one other large block," explained Mrs. Sullivan. "This will make for contentious negotiations. "

"Former Prime Minister and secular politician, Ayad al-Allawi, is currently in second place with his Iraqiyyah list, a coalition with cross sectarian parties," said ISW President Kimberly Kagan. "If Maliki's rivals ally with Allawi, we could see a new governing coalition and a new Prime Minister which could dramatically reshape Iraqi politics."

[snip]

Key facts from the report:

* Currently, Prime Minister Maliki's State of Law coalition is in the lead with roughly 75-82 seats.
* Ayad al-Allawi's Iraqiyyah list is in second with 66-74 seats.
* The predominantly-Shi'a Iraqi National Alliance is in third with roughly 58-63 seats.
* Kurdistani List is in fourth with roughly 33-36 votes.

Clarice Feldman