Graph of the Day for March 9, 2010

By Randall Hoven

"Using CBO's ‘textbook growth' model, it is not possible to simulate the effects of the alternative* fiscal scenario after 2058 because deficits become so large and unsustainable that the model cannot calculate their effects. The [Paul Ryan] Roadmap would put the federal budget on a sustainable path... The economy would be considerable stronger under the [Ryan] proposal than it would be under the alternative* fiscal scenario. Real gross national product per person would be about 70 percent higher in 2058 under the proposal than under the alternative fiscal scenario."

Congressional Budget Office's analysis of Paul Ryan's Roadmap for American Future Act of 2010.

*The "alternative" fiscal scenario is the result of continuing current policies with typical legislative changes - the "business as usual" scenario.

Source: Congressional Budget Office.

Hoven's Index for March 9, 2010

CBO projected federal outlays (including interest on the debt) under the "alternative", or business as usual, scenario, as a percentage of GDP:

2020: 26.0%

2040: 36.6%

2060: 48.6%

2080: 64.7%

Under Paul Ryan's Roadmap:

2020: 22.2%

2040: 23.5%

2060: 19.5%

2080: 14.0%

Source: Congressional Budget Office.

PS: "On 22 February 2003, the Daily Telegraph (London, England) published a front-page story announcing Isaac Newton's prediction that the world would end in 2060." Isaac-Newton.org.

Graph of the Day Archive.