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PrintOctober 18, 2009
Happy Days are here again! NY Times says recession over
Well, if it's in the Times, it must be true, right?
Floyd Norris:
Over all, the surveys indicate that the manufacturing sectors of China, Taiwan, South Korea and India had begun to grow by April, but that the United States did not follow suit until August.
In Europe, France is reporting growth, and Britain is hovering near the midpoint, indicating the deterioration has stopped but growth has not yet begun. Although the German government estimates that its gross domestic product rose in the second quarter, the manufacturing survey indicates continued weakness in that country.
New orders and production have turned positive everywhere but in the three European laggards, Spain, Ireland and Italy. Spain and Ireland have been badly hurt by collapses in real estate markets, which had boomed, in part, because of easy credit. Mr. Williamson attributed some of Italy's problems to a lack of confidence in its government's ability to deal with problems.
But employment continues to lag in most countries outside of Asia. Mr. Williamson said he estimated that total job losses in the major developed countries - the United States, Britain, the euro zone and Japan - bottomed out at 1.9 million a month in March and are now about 500,000 a month. While many companies are still hesitant to hire, he says he thinks employment will begin to grow by the end of this year.
In Europe, France is reporting growth, and Britain is hovering near the midpoint, indicating the deterioration has stopped but growth has not yet begun. Although the German government estimates that its gross domestic product rose in the second quarter, the manufacturing survey indicates continued weakness in that country.
New orders and production have turned positive everywhere but in the three European laggards, Spain, Ireland and Italy. Spain and Ireland have been badly hurt by collapses in real estate markets, which had boomed, in part, because of easy credit. Mr. Williamson attributed some of Italy's problems to a lack of confidence in its government's ability to deal with problems.
But employment continues to lag in most countries outside of Asia. Mr. Williamson said he estimated that total job losses in the major developed countries - the United States, Britain, the euro zone and Japan - bottomed out at 1.9 million a month in March and are now about 500,000 a month. While many companies are still hesitant to hire, he says he thinks employment will begin to grow by the end of this year.
Ed Lasky adds:
Furthermore, would we have seen this story-and the interpretation-if George Bush (or any Republican ) was in the Oval Office? Obama is struggling in the polls. People are skeptical about health reform while the economy is so weak and recovery is tentative. How to fix the environment for him. Gin up a story that happy times are her again. I have been reading the Times for decades and don't recall this type of analysis in past years.
Norris doesn't get out of New York much, does he. If he did, he would know that this depression is still bleeding jobs, while new business activity is at a near standstill and no one dares hire anyone unless absolutely necessary. That's because nobody is sure what that new employee is going to cost. New regulations, health care, and general uncertainty is causing even those businesses not treading water to hesitate in hiring anyone.
Note the slight uptick in manufacturing that has now begun to tank again. We are in real danger of deepening this recession unless something is done to spur growth. That something, of course, is targeted tax cuts. But Democrats are refusing to concede that the GOP is right and their "stimulus" ideas are all wrong.
In short, they'd rather see more people lose their jobs than admit that they bollixed things up even more.
