Watch out for the Labor Day effect

Obama's total approval rating has been down each of the last four days. It is now at an all time low of 45%.

A similar pattern emerged just before the Fourth of July when an approval rating that had been fairly stable for three months stepped down several points over a two week period.

I suspect that a segment of voters who had been reserving judgment until Obama had a chance set one of the two holidays that frame summer as their measuring point. Around Independence Day the first group of them began to hold Obama accountable. Now another slice of the electorate may be starting to do so.

Note that the Rasmussen poll on who is responsible for the economy was unchanged for June, July and August with 39% blaming Obama. I expect the next Rasmussen poll on responsibility for the economy, out sometime in mid September, will be bad news for Obama. The continuing weakness in the labor market will make it very hard to maintain the position that the new guy needs to be given a chance. An anticipated market correction after a rally of six months duration may also impact this poll as September is a notorious month for market sell offs. Many have called the recent upswing a sucker's rally because of the ongoing economic weakness.