June 23, 2009
What would make Obama change his Iran strategy?
Obama has no red lines that would stop his grand bargain with Iran. In his news conference the President said :
QUESTION: Thank you, Mr. President.Your administration has said that the offer to talk to Iran's leaders remains open. Can you say if that's still so even with all the violence that has been committed by the government against the peaceful protesters?And if it is, is there any red line that your administration won't cross where that offer will be shut off?OBAMA: Well, obviously what's happened in Iran is profound, and we're still waiting to see how it plays itself out.My position coming into this office has been that the United States has core national security interests in making sure that Iran doesn't possess a nuclear weapon and it stops exporting terrorism outside of its borders.We have provided a path whereby Iran can reach out to the international community, engage, and become a part of international norms.It is up to them to make a decision as to whether they choose that path. What we've been saying over the last several days, the last couple of weeks, obviously is not encouraging in terms of the path that this regime may choose to take.And the fact that they are now in the midst of an extraordinary debate taking place in Iran, you know, may end up coloring how they respond to the international community as a whole.We are going to monitor and see how this plays itself out before we make any judgments about how we proceed. But to reiterate, there is a path available to Iran in which their sovereignty is respected, their traditions, their culture, their faith is respected, but one in which they are part of a larger community that has responsibilities and operates according to norms and international rules that are universal.We don't know how they're going to respond yet, and that's what we're waiting to see.QUESTION: So should there be consequences for what's happened so far?OBAMA: I think that the international community is, as I said before, bearing witness to what's taking place. And the Iranian government should understand that how they handle the dissent within their own country, generated indigenously, internally, from the Iranian people, will help shape the tone, not only for Iran's future, but also its relationship to other countries.
For all the "toughening" of the language Obama has not changed his main strategy: The US has a core national security interests in making sure that Iran doesn't possess a nuclear weapon by providing a path whereby Iran can reach out to the international community, engage, and become a part of international norms.
Very nice. But what happens if this path does not work? Since there are no US red lines that would shut the path down, there does not seem to be anything, apart from Israeli action against the Iranian sites, that would help the core US security interests in making sure that Iran doesn't possess a nuclear weapon.