PrintSeptember 19, 2008
GOP Brand making a comeback
The Republican party is making a comeback in the polls, fueled largely by the selection of Sarah Palin as Vice Presidential candidate but also due to a successful convention:
New polling suggests that the Republican Party is beginning to regain some of its luster and, perhaps as important, is experiencing a surge in excitement among its political base.
A new poll by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press reports that independent voters have an equally favorable opinion of both parties, 50 to 49 percent, a one-point edge for the GOP. That compares to an 18-point Democratic advantage as recently as August, a wide gap that had generally held for more than a year.
And half of registered voters overall now have a favorable opinion of the Republican Party, the highest GOP ranking in three years. Slightly more voters, 55 percent, continue to have a favorable view of the Democratic Party.
The GOP convention and the selection of Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate have also generated considerable enthusiasm among the party rank-and-file. Pew found that three in four Republicans express satisfaction with their presidential choice. In June, only half said the same.
The findings come as the Gallup Poll recently found that the Democratic generic lead among voters, when asked which party they prefer to control Congress, has withered to only 3 points, 48 to 45 percent. Democrats had a double-digit generic congressional advantage on the eve of the midterm elections.
How does this translate into the real world of campaigns and votes?
I think it shores up many GOP House members who were vulnerable and helps some incumbent senators like Elizabeth Dole of NC and perhaps John Sununu of New Hampshire. Instead of losing 15-20 seats, if these numbers hold, the GOP will almost certainly hold their losses in the House to 10 or less while the senate - which a little more than 2 months ago looked like a disaster area for the GOP - could see the loss of only 2or 3 seats.
Open seats are still a problem for the Republicans because they didn't do a very good job at recruiting strong candidates. Not entirely their fault because GOP politicians sensed long ago that this was going to be a Democratic year and many of their best and strongest candidates gave 2008 a pass. And since there are 32 open seats due to retiring members and the deaths of some others, it will be very hard to avoid the loss of several of those seats.
But as things stand now, a debacle has been avoided and it appears that the Republicans will almost hold their own when it comes to the down ticket races this year.
