Politico's Glen Thrush has written an excellent piece on Obama's "Summer Stall" in the polls and why these 7 warning signs might mean that McCain - despite all the obstacles - might yet pull it out in the end.

1. Race. Although Obama is doing better among whites than Kerry, the race factor may work against him in some states.

2. Virginia is still an uphill climb for Obama. And if he loses Ohio and Florida - a distinct possibility - taking Virginia and some other western states would become vital.

3. Michigan is in play for McCain. Not unsurprising given the unpopularity of Democrats in the state. And if McCain picks home state favorite son Mitt Romney as his running mate?

4. Bad times may be good for Obama but what if the economy really goes south? People may want the experienced hand rather than the rookie.

5. Third party candidate Bob Barr is not going to have the impact of a Ross Perot.

6. History is working against Obama. No Democrat north of the Mason-Dixon line has won since Kennedy.

7. The American people may want divided government. "Fairly or not, folks think he’s pretty liberal and nobody wants a pair of Pelosis running things.”

I should say not.