PrintJune 14, 2008
Obama's 'Dead Cat' Bounce
The kind of media hype given to Barack Obama last week after he clinched the Democratic nomination for president usually presages a big jimp in the polls.
But Obama never received more than a medium bounce - up to a 7 point lead over John McCain in the Gallup poll. And now, less than two weeks later, McCain finds himself back within 3 points of the frontrunner:
Barack Obama leads John McCain in national registered voter preferences for the election, but by a slightly narrower margin than he had earlier this week, 46% vs. 43%.Although Obama's three percentage point advantage is statistically significant, it is down from the 6- to 7-point leads he had in Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)
Perhaps Obama's miniscule bounce could be attributed to the fact that he was the inevitable nominee for at least a month prior to his clinching it. But it could also mean that American's are starting to get to know Obama and are reluctant to commit to him - despite grave misgivings about the Republicans and McCain.
Ed Morrissey calls it a "dead cat bounce" - one of politics more colorful metaphors. If so, that cat must have been dead a while for Obama to get what amounts to a hicup in the national polls.
