PrintMay 7, 2008
'The Tie is broken'
Todd Beeton of MyDD has probably the most realistic analysis of what actually happened to the race last night.
This is-it-over or isn't-it division echoes the mixed messages we've gotten from Hillary Clinton herself tonight. First there was her speech, which, I have to agree with Timmeh, was at once a rallying cry and a valedictory; in it, Clinton made an awkward and blatant plea for funds, yet the post-primary fund solicitation e-mail her campaign sent out this evening was more "thanks" than "please;" and finally we have the news that Hillary Clinton will hold no public events tomorrow, yet we also get word from Andrea Mitchell that her meeting with superdelegates set for the morning is purely routine and she intends to be back on the campaign trail by Thursday after a fundraiser tomorrow night. What all of this accomplishes, of course, is to keep both options on the table so that they can see how the fundraising goes and how the media spins tonight before deciding whether to stay in or to drop out. There is a third option as well, which I believe was proposed on MSNBC earlier, which would be to do a sort of combination of both, i.e. campaign strongly over the next two weeks but more as an ally of Obama's than as a foe until May 20th when they both will likely once again end up winning a state and use his likely majority of pledged delegate status as the tipping point to bow out gracefully.
Otherwise, the internet and blogosphere is in an uproar this morning as a tug of war is going on between those who believe Clinton will drop out soon and those who think she's still in it for the long haul.
Allah says it's over. Ditto Malkin. Not so fast says Ambinder. And so it goes, back and forth with those thinking Hillary's demise inevitable and probably not in the distant future in the ascendancy.
The fact is, the race changed last night - to Hillary Clinton's detriment. Her major electability argument with the Superdelegates went by the wayside and only another revelation about Obama's past could resurrect it.
For that reason, Clinton will, I believe, stay in the race but at a reduced pace. She will win West Virginia next week and Kentucky the week after and at that point, will once again reassess her chances. How much money is she raising? Is she closing the popular vote gap? Are Superdelegates still signing up with her campaign?
The answers to these and other questions will then determine her future course. I doubt that she would formally drop out but rather stay in it all the way through the first ballot of the convention, conceding only when Obama has officially been declared the winner.
