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May 3, 2008
Michael Barone on Obama/Wright
The "Mr. Wizard" of politics, Michael Barone, weighs in with some devastating news for Obama regarding his belated denunciation of his former pastor. His numbers are tanking:
The latest Fox News poll, conducted after the Rev. Jeremiah Wright's appearance at the National Press Club, showed Obama's favorable/unfavorables at 63 to 27 percent among Democrats, compared to Hillary Clinton's 73 to 22 percent. Suddenly she's not the only one with high negatives. And 36 percent of Democrats say they would be disinclined to vote for Obama because of his longtime relationship with his former pastor. There's more bad news in The Pew Research Center poll of Democrats. Obama's national lead among Democrats is down from 49 to 39 percent to a statistically insignificant 47 to 45 percent.
These results are not outliers. The Rasmussen tracking poll showed Obama leading Clinton 49 to 41 percent before Wright spoke to the National Press Club. Afterward the numbers were 46 to 44 percent in favor of Clinton. The Gallup Poll had Obama leading Clinton 50 to 41 percent the night before the Pennsylvania primary. The results reported May 1 were Clinton 49 percent, Obama 45 percent.
Obama's standing as a general election candidate also seems to have taken a hit. Gallup showed him tied with John McCain 45 to 45 percent before the Wright appearance and trailing 47 to 43 percent afterward; at the same time, it shows Hillary Clinton tied with McCain 46 to 46 percent. Similarly, Rasmussen has McCain now ahead of Obama 46 to 43 percent and McCain tied with Clinton 44 to 44 percent.
Barone believes that one problem for Obama wasn't so much what Jeremiah Wright said, but how Obama handled it. He started off declaring that Wright had given us an opportunity to talk about race in his March 18th speech in Philadelphia, but that quickly changed into a "distraction" when it became apparent that race wasn't really the issue with voters and the Wright Stuff. He also asserted that he could never disown Wright on March 18th, only to reverse himself and throw Wright under the bus six weeks later.
My belief is that the curtains have finally been pulled back on Obama to reveal what kind of a politician he truly is; a gifted but calculating man whose rhetoric does not match his actions. Only his most rabid supporters now fail to see him as anything except just another politician.
Good news for McCain who would have had a hard time running against a political messiah.