Surging Obama Closing in on Clinton in PA

By Rick Moran

The most recent Quinnipac poll from Pennsylvania shows Barack Obama closing the once formidable gap between himself and Hillary Clinton in the crucial primary scheduled for April 22:

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is catching up with New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary and now trails 50 - 44 percent among likely primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 50 - 41 percent Sen. Clinton lead in an April 2 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University. In this latest survey, one of the biggest shifts is among women who went from 54 - 37 percent for Clinton April 2 to 54 - 41 percent for her today.

A look at other groups shows:

White voters for Clinton 56 - 38 percent, down from 59 - 34 percent last week.

Black voters back Obama 75 - 17 percent, compared to 73 - 11 percent.

Men are for Obama 48 - 44 percent, compared to a 46 - 46 percent tie last week.

Voters under 45 go with Obama 55 - 40, while older voters back Clinton 55 - 38 percent.

Clinton has staked her future on winning big in Pennsylvania, hoping to convince superdelegates that only she can win traditional Democratic states. A loss or even a close call for her in the Keystone state will probably doom her candidacy.

For Obama, his contiuing progress in increasing his support among white voters, women, and working class Democrats is bad news for Clinton. These are Hillary's traditional supporters and if Obama can cut into her base enough, it may spell the difference in a close contest.

It is still two long weeks until the primary. And recent troubles regarding her credibility may make Pennsylvania a problem for her. If Obama keeps gaining on her, she may come to regard Pennsylvania as her campaign's last stand.