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March 29, 2008

The shape of the race is changing

By Richard Baehr

I consider Rasmussen the go-to-polling organization for following election trends. Their samples are consistent from one poll to the next, and they use four day rolling averages to smooth out the noise. It is the best source for following trends. Hillary is collapsing under the weight of her Bosnia lie. Obama now leads her 48-42  in head-to-head.

McCain  now leads Obama 48-43, and leads Clinton 51-40.   So much for her  argument she is more electable.  As Hillary has nosedived, Obama has improved versus her, but also versus McCain. Closer on that count this week. The good news for McCain is a new Rasmussen survey for Virginia:  McCain leads Obama by 11%, Hillary by 22%.

The South is done for the Democrats, I think, including Florida, where Obama will not run well.

McCain is giving a real look at Rob Portman, United States Trade Representative and former Ohio Congressman for  VP. This was my recommendation  almost 8 months back.

If  McCain goes with Portman, that probably takes Ohio off the map for Obama. McCain already leads both Dems by 6% in the last Rasmussen Ohio survey. 

Without Ohio or Florida , Dems winning the White House is like drawing to an inside straight -- Dems would need to hold all Kerry states, and win Iowa (7), Colorado (9) and either New Mexico (5) or Nevada (5) or some combination totaling at least 18 electoral votes (Bush won 286-252, 270 wins). If they win 17, you get a 269 tie (Dems win Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada), then it would go to House, each state with one vote. Democrats have the majority of states now. 
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