PrintJanuary 27, 2008
Obama's South Carolina Victory
Senator Barack Obama won a big victory over Hillary Clinton in South Carolina but it may not be enough to propel him into a dominant position in the February 5 Super Tuesday match ups.
That's because exit polls show that Obama won only 24% of white voters in the Palmetto State - a sign that his candidacy has yet to breakthrough the racial barrier and reach across the racial divide to build a majority.
However, there is a ray of hope for Obama:
The focus of the coverage is likely to be on Obama's 80 percent showing among black voters. But it's worth noting that not only did he win one in every four white voters, according to exit polls, but he ran almost dead even with Hillary Clinton among white males (29 percent for Clinton, 27 percent for Obama). Depending on what John Edwards decides to do, that result could have major implications heading into Feb. 5. If Edwards drops out -- still an unlikely prospect -- before Super Tuesday, these numbers suggest Obama could well be competitive among white men with Clinton, a potentially powerful broadening of his coalition.By playing the race card, the Clintons have successfully marginalized Obama's candidacy. It was a usually subtle campaign to remind voters of Obama's color which was successful in splitting the Democratic vote largely along racial lines.
And once again, Hillary Clinton proved that she can turn out Democratic women. An astonishing 61% of all primary voters yesterday were female. Obama was able to gather 54% of those women voters thanks to his winning 76% of the female black vote. But Hillary picked up 42% of the white female vote to Obama's 20%, a clear indication that in states where the African American population isn't quite the decisive factor as it is in South Carolina, Hillary will do very well.
All in all, a good victory for Obama and an important one. But in the long run, it appears that the Clintonian tactics of making him "the black candidate" succeeded - at least in South Carolina - which means it is likely we will see more of this racial politiking before Super Tuesday.
