PrintJanuary 14, 2008
GOP Michigan Primary a barnburner
It will probably come down to turnout in the Michigan Republican primary tomorrow. With all the polls showing a near dead heat between John McCain and Mitt Romney, the contest will be decided by who goes to the polls.
For Romney who has demonstrated strength in urban areas like Detroit and Grand Rapids, getting his supporters to the polls will be absolutely key.
During the first nine days of January, the Romney campaign spent more than $2 million in advertisements on television and radio in Michigan. Compare that with McCain's $359,000 and Huckabee's $39,000.As for McCain, he must turn out as many independent and conservative Democratic voters as he can to vote for him. Michigan allows for such cross over voting as did New Hampshire, a state McCain won rather handily.
On top of that, Romney's campaign recently announced it was pulling its paid media in other early-voting states and focusing its remaining resources in Michigan. Still, Romney says the state is "not do-or die..."
Romney and his rivals are all trying to convince Michigan voters that they can ease the state's economic concerns. The state's unemployment rate sits a 7.4 percent.
Romney has pounced on a couple of missteps by McCain, criticizing his rival for saying that some jobs will never come back to Michigan while McCain has been touting his record on Iraq - an issue that is bound to play well in a state where polls show that the war is the number 2 concern among state Republicans.
Can Romney stop the McCain "Straight Talk Express" dead in its tracks? He is going to have to if he wishes to continue as a viable candidate. Romney was born in Michigan and his father was governor there. A loss would raise the question "If he can't win in Michigan, where can he win?"
A win by McCain on the other hand would propel him into Saturday's South Carolina primary with a lot of momentum. And a win there along with a win in Florida could very well make him the prohibitive favorite to capture the nomination.
It will probably be a late night in Michigan before the results are known.
