PrintJanuary 1, 2008
Final Des Moines Register Poll
Barack Obama has moved out to a solid lead over Hillary Clinton and John Edwards while Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney have distanced themselves from the rest of the GOP field according to a new Des Moines Register poll released last night.
Obama leads the Democratic pack with 32% while Hillary Clinton is second with 25% followed closely by Edwards at 24%. On the Republican side, Huckabee enjoys a 32% - 26% lead over Mitt Romney with John McCain a distant third at 13%.
Fred Thomas comes in with a disappointing 9% and is tied with Ron Paul.
No one is sure exactly what to make of this poll, taken over the holidays and showing an extreme voilatility:
Indeed, the story on the ground over the last few days coming out of Iowa was Obama and Huckabee falling back while Romney and Hillary were moving up.This totally shatters the CW of the political crowd here in Des Moines, which had been convinced that Edwards was on fire and really might win, and that Huck was totally imploding. (Although the polling stopped yesterday, before today's Huck presser fiasco.) It also reaffirms my instinct that Fred Thompson isn't booking a flight to New Hampshire.
So much for our vaunted political press.
The effect of the holiday on those numbers simply can't be quantified. How focused are people on the caucuses? The fact that so many - up to 46% of Republicans - would be willing to change their vote between now and the caucuses on Thursday night is telling. It could mean that a sizable portion of both Democrats and Republicans will walk into their caucus site not knowing who they will support for president.
I guess we'll all have to wait until late Thursday night to find out what Iowans really think.
