December 2, 2007
Huckabee, Obama Surge into the Lead in Iowa
With a little more than a month to go before the Iowa Caucuses, both parties have seen their front runners tumble from the lead.
In the GOP race, it's been a David and Goliath story as Mitt Romney, who has spent nearly $7 million in the state since the first of the year finds himself trailing Mike Huckabee who has spent a measly $350,000:
Mike Huckabee has leaped ahead of Republican presidential rival Mitt Romney in Iowa, seizing first place in a new Des Moines Register poll of likely Republican caucus participants.Coming in third in the poll is Rudy Giuliani who has put precious little in the way of money into the state. But it is Fred Thompson whose star has fallen the most, losing half of his support (9%) since the October poll.
Huckabee wins the support of 29 percent of Iowans who say they definitely or probably will attend the Republican Party's caucuses on Jan. 3. That's a gain of 17 percentage points since the last Iowa Poll was taken in early October, when Huckabee trailed both Romney and Fred Thompson.
Other poll findings indicate that the former Arkansas governor is making the most of a low-budget campaign by tapping into the support of Iowa's social conservatives. Romney, who has invested more time and money campaigning in the state than any other GOP candidate, remains in the thick of the Iowa race with the backing of 24 percent of likely caucusgoers.
But that's a drop of 5 points since October for the former Massachusetts governor.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is now trailing Barack Obama:
Barack Obama has pulled ahead in the race for Iowa's Democratic presidential caucuses, while the party's national frontrunner Hillary Clinton has slipped to second in the leadoff nominating state, according to The Des Moines Register's new Iowa Poll.John Edwards is still competitive with 23%. Bill Richardson trails in 4th place with 9%.
Despite the movement, the race for 2008's opening nominating contest remains very competitive about a month before the Jan. 3 caucuses, just over half of likely caucusgoers who favor a candidate saying they could change their minds.
Obama, an Illinois senator, leads for the first time in the Register's poll as the choice of 28 percent of likely caucusgoers, up from 22 percent in October. Clinton, a New York senator, was the preferred candidate of 25 percent, down from 29 percent in the previous poll.
None of the candidates enjoy rock solid support with 60% of Republicans and more than 50% of Democrats in Iowa saying they could change their minds before Caucus day.
With the Christmas holidays coming up, candidates would ordinarily tool down the campaigns since fewer people are paying attention. But with this year's Caucus coming on the heels of New Years (January 3), it doesn't seem likely that candidates will be able to afford slowing down. Expect a whirlwind of campaigning between now and the night of the Caucuses as candidates strive to get every one of their supporters possible to the Caucus sites.