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PrintDecember 15, 2007
GOP Race Getting Wilder
What is happening with the race for the Republican nomination is much like the weather in San Francisco: If you are unhappy with it now, wait a few minutes and it will change:
Two new independent polls of Michigan primary voters out today add to the evidence for a surge for Mike Huckabee in Michigan, a decline for Rudy Giuliani and the possibility of a John McCain surge if the GOP contest draws lots of independents and Democrats.Yes it is interesting that Mike Huckabee has surged enough to tie Mitt Romney. But to see John McCain come all the way back from the dead and have a shot in Michigan if enough independents vote for him is nothing short of a miracle.
First, the survey from Marketing Resource Group, a Republican consulting firm in Lansing, for the "Inside Michigan Politics" newsletter. Among likely Republican voters, the survey found Huckabee (22 percent) and Mitt Romney (21 percent) essentially tied, with McCain third at 14 percent.
But when Democrats and independents who say they might vote in the Republican race were included, McCain was at 21 percent, with Romney at 18 percent and Huckabee at 16 percent. In both cases, Giuliani, who has been ahead in most polling in recent months, trailed significantly.
McCain was dumped out of the caravan and left for dead by the side of the road months ago. But he has slowly come back in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and other early primary states where a scenario is developing that could play directly into his hands.
The anti-Huckabee forces are looking for someone who can win in November next year. McCain has consistently run better than any other Republican against every Democrat in the race (Giuliani runs better against Hillary Clinton but not against the rest of the field). If Huckabee continues to surge, there may be enough voters who see McCain's electability as a bigger positive than anything offered by Romney or Giuliani.
It is still a very long shot but it's a better chance than he had a few months ago.
And what of the precipitous fall of Rudy Giuliani? Registering just 19% nationally now, Giuliani has lost nearly a third of his support from just one month ago. His "firewall" in Florida - where he expected to derail the Romney express - has collapsed as he now shows up 3rd in the latest polls. It calls into question whether Giuliani can win much of anything on Super Tuesday.
Fred Thompson's debate performance has created very positive buzz but it is unclear whether that will translate into support in the polls. For Fred, there might just not be enough time to turn it around.
What all this proves is that no one knows what next week will bring. And the GOP voter - saying they are unhappy with their choices - is proving very fickle indeed.
