Richard Baehr, who is both Jewish and conservative [see his AT article today on the subject -ed.], tends to think so. Baehr has written extensively about the demographics of the American electorate on his American Thinker Web site.

"A majority of Jews don't vote Republican and the 10th is 20 percent Jewish," Baehr told me. And though he regards both Seals and Footlik as good candidates, he says Kirk, whom he favors, "will be in better shape because Democrats are going to run against each other."

Baehr does not believe support for Israel will be the defining issue.