PrintOctober 4, 2007
Bush, Congress in Race to the Bottom in Poll Numbers (Updated)
The latest AP-Ipsos poll is out and approval ratings for both President Bush and Congress received the lowest marks ever recorded by the poll:
Only 31 percent said they approve of the job Bush is doing, according to the survey released on Thursday.The AP has partnered with Ipsos since 2003.
Though his positive ratings have hovered at about that range since last year, his lowest previous approval in the AP-Ipsos survey was 32 percent, which was recorded several times, most recently in June. That is virtually even with the latest reading.
Amid a major credit crunch and a weak housing market, a record low 34 percent said they approved of Bush's performance in handling the economy. His prior low in the poll was 37 percent. Bush also hit a new low with 31 percent approving of his work on domestic issues like health care, just below June's 32 percent.
The poll was taken as Bush was about to veto a measure adding $35 billion to children's health coverage. Congress' job performance was approved by just 22 percent, continuing a gradual decline in the public's assessment since Democrats took over in January.
Its lowest reading in the poll was 24 percent, recorded most recently in July.
There is little doubt that the public is disenchanted with their government. More than 70% believe the US is headed in the wrong direction. And Democrats get even lower marks for running Congress than Bush does for running the executive branch.
What does it mean? The American people are wild for change. This has translated into great enthusiasm for the candidacies of both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
But the public has not focused on the individual positions on issues taken by any candidates yet which means that there is considerable room for a Republican to step into the void and announce "I am the agent of change. Vote for me," and come across as a viable alternative to the hyper-liberalism of the Democrats.
Regardless, unless things turn around quickly for Republicans, most analysts expect the GOP to lose some Senate seats and probably not gain enough seats back in the House to retake control.
But that is the best case scenario. If the economy were to sour or disaster befall us in Iraq, the Democrats could very well sweep through to victory, picking up another 20-30 seats in the House and 4-6 Senate seats.
That is the worst case scenario for Republicans. And at this point, no popularity poll is going to show which way the electorate is going to jump.
UPDATE
American Thinker reader and a great writer and translator in his own right John Rosenthal was kind enough to supply a link to a piece he penned for TCS Daily in which he showed the Ipsos folks to be a little less than honest when it comes to generating polls:
That may well be true. However, I feel constrained to point out that the Bush and Congressional approval ratings measured by Ipsos track closely to other, perhaps more professional polls like Rasmussen and Gallup.AP press releases identify Ipsos coyly as an "international polling firm". Ipsos's own releases on its AP work describe the company as "a leading global survey-based market research company" -- as well as "non-partisan" and "objective". One would hardly expect them to say otherwise. But here is what neither AP nor Ipsos want Americans to know and assiduously avoid saying: Ipsos is a French polling firm. Not that this should matter per se. But AP and Ipsos undoubtedly fear that to many Americans it might or that, in light of the current climate of Franco-American relations, it might at least raise some doubts about Ipsos's impartiality and objectivity.
And what is worse: about this particular French polling firm, these doubts would be highly justified. On its home market, Ipsos is well known precisely for the unreliability of its polls and for being especially tight with the French political establishment.
Still, I find Mr. Rosenthal's information about the polling firm revealing. It shouldn't surprise us coming from the Associated Press - a media organ famous for its blatant bias against the President.
Thanks to Mr. Rosenthal for his information.
