California usually earns its "land of fruits and nuts" title when it comes to electoral results, especially for US Senators and a majority of the seats in the state legislature. But when it comes to ballot initiatives, the results are more mixed. This the most recent round of polling shows some encouraging results.

Proposition 87 is a hare—brained environmentalist initiative that would impose an extra tax on crude oil production in California to fund "alternative energy development." The Holywood crowd, the ones who drive Priuses to the airport before taking off for New York in their private jets, are all behind it. And they call it an investment in progress. Steven Bing alone has given $50 million to advertise a yes vote.

But Chevron and other interested parties, as well as many public safety advicates which know that police and fire protection budgets would be harmed, are against it, and are spending lavishly on radio and television advertising. Total advertising for both sides will hit at least $150 million, which means that the airwaves are saturated.

Very effective advertising from the "no" camp points out that fifty new political appointees will be hired to administer the program, and that there is no accountability demanded. It also points out that oil production in Californai will be more expensive, driving up both prices and crude oil imports from overseas places like Venezuela and the Middle East.

Californians rarely vote to raise their taxes, especially their gasoline taxes. The measure is headed for defeat.

Tobacco taxes hit only the minority who smoke, and they are quite an unpopular minority, despite their claim for victim status as addicts. Yet another raise tobacco taxes initiative is on the ballot, Proposition 85. The Field Poll shows it a dead heat. But the Field Poll has a track record of over—predicting liberal votes, so I would guess 85 would go down to defeat.

Best of all, Proposition 85, the parental noticiation requirement for underage abortions, is slightly ahead in the polls. This has received more press coverage than political advertising. Our contributor Dr. Mary Davenport has been featured on many television and radio news broadcasts making the case for it, as well as in op—eds in various newspapers.

As in Michigan, pay attention to the state ballot initiatives Tuesday night.

Thomas Lifson   11 2 06