December 15 is the target date for the "election" of a new Supreme Guide for the mullah regime. Ahmadinejad's guru, Ayatollah Yazdi, is thought to be a candidate. It's like the SS taking over from the SA stormtroopers in 1933. They're both awful, but one is super—awful.

That super—awful outcome would be Ahmadinejad and Yazdi allied at the top of the Tehran pyramid.

Tehran's propaganda line has been shifting subtly in the last few weeks. A few months ago, Ahmadinejad was claiming to be solving the technical problems of uranium enrichment, but today he is striking an even more triumphalist tone, like this:

Iran will soon celebrate completion of nuclear fuel program.

Ahmadinejad vows to install 60,000 centrifuges for the nuke program

Iran To Achieve "full Nuclear" Technology By March — Ahmadinejad

Even the United Nations "nuclear watchdog agency" is bumbling to the obvious conclusion:

U.N. agency: unclear if Iran's nuclear aims peaceful

Yes, you might say that.

How is this connected with December 15? As usual, Ahmadinejad is talking to several audiences at the same time. He is both threatening and appealing to the appeasement crowd in the West —— all the Nancy Pelosis and Harry Reids. He is also appealing to his base of poor and indoctrinated people in the slums of Tehran and the countryside. As for the large educated population of Iranians, they may not believe him, but many would take secret pride in an Iranian bomb. When India and Pakistan exploded their Bombs, both sides cheered wildly for a few days, and then went: Uh—oh... Today, Al Qaida is constantly plotting to get Pakistan's nuclear weapons.

The main audience for Ahmadinejad's New Tone must be the "Assembly of Experts" (mullahs) who may be electing the next Supreme Guide on December 15. Ahmadinejad is telling his opponents, in effect, "Forget it! We've already got the Bomb. It's too late to stop us. All you can do is go along." That's his style: To overpower by intimidation.

December 15 is still the target date. There is still a choice between a super—awful and a merely awful Supreme Guide for Iran.

This is not a good time for President Bush to be seen to be drastically weakened. In fact, as long as he is president George W. Bush has executive control over the armed forces. But the logic of American defense is that we must be seen to be attacked first before we feel justified in acting.  That's a great plot—line for Western movies like High Noon, but in the age of missiles and nukes, it's asking for a disaster to happen. 

James Lewis   11 14 06