Below find the latest poll results for 5 GOP senators in trouble (Talent, Chafee, DeWine, Burns and Santorum), who had all been trailing. In parentheses, the prior poll result (GOP candidate first).

Missouri : 46—44 (46—47)

Rhode Island: 43—42 (38—44)

Ohio : 42—45 (41—49)

Montana: 47—47 (42—43)

Pennsylvania: 39—44 (42—48)

So only Santorum and DeWine are behind now, and not by much in either case.

On the other side, Allen's lead is now small (3—5%), and Corker is up by only 6% (48—42 over Ford in Tennesee for Bill Frist's open seat). I will be surprised if Ford wins.

On the House side, more and more seats are having inital polls reported:

1. Washington 8: Reichert R up 54—41

2. New Mexico 1: Wilson R up 46—44 in Democratic funded poll

3. Connecticut 5: Johnson R up 49—44 in Democratic funded poll

I always add 5% to the margin of the opponent in any poll conducted for a candidate or party. If I am right, then Wilson is up maybe 7%, Johnson up maybe 10%. All 3 of these races are among the top 20 —25 Democratic targets, with Wilson one of the highest Democratic priority targets.  Johnson is considered the least endangered of the three Republican congressmen in Connecticut (Chris Shays most vulnerable, then Rob Simmons).

The Lieberman race may be helping all three Connecticut Republicans.  If all 3 Republican incumbents listed above are ahead, that is a sign that the Dems are not nearly there yet for House takeover.

Richad Baehr    8 26 06