Probably the best strategic analysis of the Iranian threat available today is by Edward Luttwak, writing in Commentary. For those who are concerned about the apocalyptic regime in Iran, this is required reading.

Luttwak does not believe the current "ultra—extremist" regime can be allowed to get nukes. But he argues persuasively that they are grossly incompetent in science and technology. They cannot even drill their own exploratory oil wells. The locations and capacities of most of their nuclear facilities are known and are not impressive. The most dangerous ones, the centrifuges at Natanz and perhaps elsewhere, can be knocked out before they start producing large enough quantities of enriched uranium.

But Luttwak believes this regime is capable of mass suicide—slaughter. It is intensely unpopular with the people of Iran, including many Shiites. Ahmadinejad as mayor of Tehran denied the Sunnis who live there the right to build even a single mosque — although Tel Aviv does have a Sunni mosque. Luttwak believes the regime's days are numbered; their constant threatening behavior reflects their shaky hold on power.

According to Luttwak the question is whether Ahmadinejad will survive long enough to build nuclear weapons. If necessary, limited strikes can be carried out before that happens.

This is a sober but encouraging assessment. Pray that it is right. Please read the whole piece.

James Lewis   4 18 06