It is very possible that if Democrat Rep. Benjamin L. Cardin wins the primary, Republican Lt. Governor Michael Steele will win as much as a third of the black vote (embittered by Kweisi Mfume's primary defeat), which would doom Cardin. 

Maryland has the nation's third highest African American percentage of the popualtion after Mississippi and Louisiana (though in Louisiana, that percentage may have dropped substantially due to Katrina).

Alternatively, black voters will not show up in great numbers to support Cardin. If Mfume wins the primary, he would likely win more than 80%  of the  black  vote against Steele, but would lose some suburban white voters. In the most recent statewide polling, Steele ran ahead of both Democrats in head to head races. 

Richard A. Baehr  2 02 06