Noam Schreiber, writing the venerable TRB column (subscription only) for The New Republic, gleefully identifies tensions within the GOP voting coaltion, and uses the insight to explain the persistence of GOP spending procilivities and to infer impending doom for continued GOP dominance of domestic politics, something liberal writers have been doing since the GOP won controll of the House in 1994.

Schreiber does have one good insight, though: the GOP is increasingly reliant on the votes of lower middle class voters, and these voters generally do appreciate what the federal government spends on them, via Medicare and a few other programs. The Democrats have become increasingly reliant on votes of affluent professionals, who were oince thought to be GOP—leaning, but now are in the Democrat camp, predominantly.

Those struggling to earn their livings do not appreciate poverty program spending, for the most part. President Bush's reluctance to delay the Medicare prescription drug program probably does have something to do with the need for economically struggling voters for a bit of help with the soaring cost of health care. But Schreiber puses this insight too far, in attempting to predict an imminent collapse of the GOP voting coalition. The fact is that both parties cobble together disparate groups, and always have.

Hat tip: Ed Lasky

THomas Lifson   10 01 05