With apologies to Richard Baehr, herewith is my totally unscientific election prediction.  The ever—shifting poll results and the refusal to acknowledge the pollsters' bias in these surveys causes pundits to focus on the minutiae of sample size, confidence levels, etc.  Although important from a statistical standpoint, we lose sight of the larger campaign picture.  The simple fact is that the Kerry campaign has run such a ham—handed campaign in recent weeks that they have lost any chance of penetrating three critical demographic groups.

Active duty servicemen and women.  The more people that are deployed to a theater of war, the more people understand the importance of the War on Terror and the critical need for a democratic Iraq.  In addition to the 1.4 million service members and their families, count the Reserve and National Guard troops mobilized for the war in this group.  Most of the hand—wringing about over—committed reserve troops comes from the local politicians.  A glance at any CENTCOM or service component website shows these units are doing exactly what they were designed to do: deploy and fight alongside our active component.

From four—star General on down to Private, they also understand that military operations are never perfect, but they bust their butt to get as close as they can. Kerry's attempt to exploit the bogus 'missing explosives' story slammed our Armed Forces' professionalism and competence.  To add insult to injury, his legacy media lackeys' lousy treatment of US Army Ordnance Corps Major Austin Pearson during a Pentagon briefing on Al—Qaqaa pushed even the supposedly apolitical military hierarchy over the edge.  Rowan and Scarborough's comments on the Pentagon reaction to the seamless information channel of US intelligence services to legacy media to Kerry is self—explanatory.  Even Kerry's nominal military advisors, Wesley Clark and Tony Zinni, declined to stand beside Kerry as he attempted to make political hay out of this non—issue.  Add to this demographic the moms, dads, spouses, aunts, uncles, etc. of our servicemen who don't take too kindly to having their loved ones thought of as perennial goof—ups, and Kerry has a disaster in the making with millions of voters.

The 65 to 80 million gun owners in the US.  Kerry's camo—clad duck hunting expedition was a great photo—op, but dumb. The American left has attempted for years to split 2nd  Amendment gun rights advocates from the so—called outdoor 'sportsmen' purists.  It didn't work before, and it won't work now. The National Rifle Association (NRA) has waited until pretty late in the game to endorse GW, but perhaps, this was by design.  The NRA has financed a slew of TV advertisements airing October 25 through this past weekend.  They are also conducting late political rallies in South Dakota, South Carolina and Wisconsin; in fact, Wisconsin will receive a large amount of attention from the NRA.  They are also focusing efforts on key Senate races including Specter's re—election bid in Pennsylvania.  In 2000, the NRA had an 85 percent success rate at the federal and state level, and there is no reason now to think they will be any less successful in 2004.  Count Wisconsin, Ohio, Minnesota, and Iowa as gun owner states for Bush, and those other states leaning Bush to move solidly into his camp, including the Florida Panhandle pushing the state slightly into Bush's favor.

Veterans, especially Vietnam veterans.  No more needs to be said about Kerry stupidly making his Vietnam service a cornerstone of his campaign during the Democratic National Convention, thereby opening himself up for a thorough deconstruction by the Swift Boat Vets. As with the active duty personnel described above, expect the families of our Vietnam vets to ride the coattails of our heroes who are just now receiving 'the homecoming parade they never had.'  In a time of peace, this group may have swung slightly to Kerry's favor on the issue of Veteran's benefits, despite President Bush enacting sweeping additions to veterans programs.  Because Kerry has impugned our past and present veterans' sacrifices and honor, there is a chance that this group will swing to Bush even more than the reported four—to—one ratio of active duty service members.

Therefore, based upon these factors, the Weekly Reader poll (hey, they're only kids, but their parents talk in front of them, right?), and the Vegas odds—makers prediction, my crystal ball says (even taking the statistical three percent under from Vegas and the pollsters):

Popular vote:         Bush — 58%
                             Kerry — 40%
                             Nader — 2%

Electoral College:   Bush — 306
                              Kerry — 232

Good luck GW, and God Bless America!

Douglas Hanson    11 1 04