In Iowa (7 Electoral College votes, and won narrowly by Gore in 2000), 270,000 absentee ballots have been requested, 2/3 of them from Democrats. This has never happened at this ratio before. Of those turning the absentee ballots in, so far they are running at an even heavier ratio for the Democrats.  The Kerry forces seem to have a better ground game in the state, thanks to the very well funded efforts of the 527 group ACT.  This could not only tip the state, but  potentially knock down a  GOP congressman in a close race. 

All the polls use historical turnout models to translate registered votes into likely voters. They may be underestimating the Democratic turnout advantage. Democrats registered about 40,000 more new voters than Republicans in Iowa. In a state decided by just 4,000 votes out of 1.3 million in 2000, the registration, and absentee advantage could translate into a 2 to 3% boost for Kerry.  A similar situation exists in Ohio, with 20 electroal collge votes, and won by Bush in 2000 by just under 4%.

If the conventionally calibrated polls in a state show Bush up 1—2% on the eve of the election, it might not be enough.

Rachard Baehr  10 11 04