All year, every other poll, it seems has shown the New Jersey Presidential contest very close. Some other surveys have shown Kerry ahead more comfortably.  The latest poll, released yesterday, is a shocker. Kerry leads by 1 or 2 points, depending on whether Nader is factored in.

New Jersey is a state Gore won by 16 poins, and has turned hard to the Democrats the past 15 years. Only Illinois has moved further and faster away from the GOP during this period.  New Jersey,  was once like Ohio, a Republican leaning surburban state.

What could account for the shift back this year? One reason is likely the very poor job done by Governor James McGreevey. The state administration is mired in scandal, and it appears to be taking a toll on the Democratic Party.

There is also the possibility that New Jersey may be a state more terrorism—conscious than others after 9/11. Severaal New Jersey towns lost dozens of their people that day. In any case, if the Republicans are almost even, without having spent a dime on ads so far,expect the spigot to open.

Posted by Richard  07 29 04