Donald Rumsfeld paying a visit to Nicaragua? The Secretary of Defense has a lot on his plate right now, and rarely travels unless it's awfully important. For him to go to such a small, impoverished country is a red flag marking something very significant swimming under the surface.

So what's been news in Nicaragua lately? Two ugly things — one, the political attack on President Enrique Bolanos, a U.S. ally embattled against leftist judges who want to jail him for political reasons. Horribly enough, these entrenched Marxist Sandinista holdovers on the bench and their prosecutorial allies were never cleaned out by any of the democratic leaders who have followed since the end of the communist regime in 1990, and in the past year, they've become emboldened. 

Allies of President Bolanos say it's because the Marxist Sandinistas fear corruption charges themselves after President Bolanos jailed other corrupt politicians. By getting Bolanos first, they preempt charges against themselves.

Politically, Nicaragua is in worse shape than at any time since the Sandinista guerrilla—dicatorship of the 1980s. Since the Sandinista war of the 1980s, Nicaragua has become the second—poorest nation in the Americas, awash in corruption, gang warfare, and hopelessness. Under these conditions, and tired of the same old failure, the second awful thing happening in this country is that Nicaragua's desperate voters elected Sandinistas in several hundred mayoral races this past weekend, something that cannot portend well for President Bolanos' political survival.

So it's very significant that Donald Rumsfeld is about to pay this troubled country a visit. What follows is pure speculation about what's going on, but here are some events we know of currently that may be the reason for the
visit:

First, since Rumsfeld is President Bush's big gun, and such a blunt man, he's probably going to lay down the law for someone in an effort to shore up President Bolanos, an ally the U.S. needs. But given Nicaragua's economic distress, he's also in a position to help, possibly with preliminary talk of aid or trade incentives.

Second, based on Rumsfeld's military portfolio, the Nicaragua visit may have regional significance. At least two or three frightening events are happening in the Caribbean right now.

One is the regional arms race between Colombia and Venezuela. This week, Colombia announced that it will purchase 24 combat planes, a move that follows Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's announced purchase of 50 Russian MiG—29 aircraft, planes he doesn't need for anything other than to attack another nation.

Two is the nightmare in Haiti. There's a key Caricom (Caribbean community) meeting going on right now in Trinidad about whether to recognize the government of Haiti that insiders tell me is nothing short of a dogfight between pro— and anti—Aristide forces among the Caribbean states. 

As of now, it appears that the pro—Aristide forces are winning, a diplomatic and strategic blow to the U.S. This group, led by about four states, is closely aligned with President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela who is determined to exert his Marxist influence in the region. The failed and debilitated state of Haiti, unrecognized as a state, is perfect for his designs.

Meanwhile, pro—Aristide Democrat Congresswoman Maxine Waters, always on the opposite side of U.S. interests, charges in public speeches that the U.S.
intends to set up military bases in Haiti, claims that may either be true or not, but suffice it to say, are opposed by her 'side' along with any constructive U.S. role in Haiti, given the alternative, which is the emerging opportunity to expand Chavez's regional influence.

Which brings us to the most difficult to believe story about this region, this one from sources close to Florida's governor Jeb Bush: that Chavez has no intention of fighting a border war with Colombia with his new MiGs — but instead has them, and their Cuban pilots, pointed at Miami, Florida. They insist it's not tinfoil hat. That's right, Miami. It seems to be utterly insane.

If this is the case, the Rumsfeld visit to the small troubled Central American would make sense. And the U.S. may be facing a true territorial threat. As of now, it's speculation. The only thing that's not speculation is that Rumsfeld's not going there for small reasons.

A.M. Mora y Leon   11 10 04