Zogby says Kerry got a 3 point bounce from the convention —— Bush losing 3 points to undecided, Kerry picking up nothing. So he has Kerry now up 5, 48—43, versus 48—46 two weeks ago. This sounds about right. Bush led after his convention in 2000 by over 15 points. A 5 point lead for Kerry now after the Edwards pick and convention bounces means nothing, and won't last. 

I pick up pessimism from Democratic operatives on winning Florida and Missouri. They will pour everything into Ohio, believing they can hold Michigan and Pennsylvania. If Bush loses Ohio, he will have to recover in Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, his best shots for turning a blue state red (in that order).

Edwards may live in Ohio, as Lieberman did in Florida in 2000.  The calculus of winning will come down to just a few states. Democrats think they have a real shot at turning New Hampshire and West Virginia. That is not enough to win (it justs gets them to 269 if all other states hold 2000 pattern), so they need a bigger state as well.  If either candidate breaks out in late Octboer to a 4 or 5 point lead, he could win 325 to 350 electoral votes. A 0 to 2 point margin could mean a repeat of 2000— an Electoral College winner who loses the popular vote, and a very close Electoral College vote in any case.

Posted by Richard  07 30 04