A new Quinnipiac poll  shows Robert Casey (a pro—life Democrat)  up 5 points, 46—41 on Pennsylvania's Republican Senator Rick Santorum. Interestingly, Santorum leads other possible Democratic nominees who are pro—choice.  This suggests the wisdom of the Hillay Clinton strategy on abortion for the Democrats. By moving to the center on abortion, they win votes their hardline pro—choice position makes impossible to win. 

Pennsylvania's other Republican Senator, Arlen Spector announced today he has Hodgkins disease. If Spector were forced to resign for health reasons, creating an open seat, it would be very difficult for the GOP to hold both seats in the 2006 election. In fact, Governor Rendell would then appoint a Democrat to the open seat, giving that person an incumbency advantage in the 2006 special election to fill Spector's seat. If Rendell appointed Casey, it might help Santorum, by weakening the field of potential opponents for him. 

Pennysylvania is a state with a very slight bluish tint. John Kerry won by just 2% in 2004.

Richard Baehr   2 17 05