Updated  Despite almost 60 years as a Communist dictatorship, North Korea remains strongly influenced by Confucian concepts of governance, which are in many ways congenial to a tyrannical dictator. One key aspect of Confucianism is the notion of the "mandate of heaven." Major disasters, such as earthquakes, or, say, massive explosions, are taken as a sign of the loss of the mandate of heaven.

Word reaches the outside world via South Korean news sources that two trains have collided in a North Korean train station, killing three thousand people. The reason the toll is so high is that one train was reportedly carrying liquified petroleum gas, a heavier—than—air substance, which spreads along the ground until it de—pressurizes enough to become an explosive gas mixture combined with the atmosphere. Only at such a time can a random spark set off an explosion, all the more massive, due to the dispersion of the gas cloud.

The abject failure of the younger Kim as administrator of his domain is once again crystal clear to his long—suffering subjects. Although less important than mass starvation, this explosion is more dramatic. Kim Jong—il's hold on power just became shakier. His brutal tyranny rests on continued acceptance of his rule by the military. They have got to be asking themselves questions.

update: The explosion took place in the train station at Ryongchon, a railway junction city about 12 miles from the border with China. The station itself, as well as the surrounding district were reduced to rubble, as if from an aerial bombardment. The train which carried the LPG fuel was supposedly a gift from China, following a secret visit to Beijing by Kim Jong—il. Unconfirmed reports assert that Kim himself passed through Ryongchon a few hours before the blast, but some sources cast doubt on this.

The rail line may have been extensively damaged. It constitutes one of the main arteries for bringing food and fuel into North Korea from China, a pipeline which is crucial for prevention of even more starvation. A worsening of the fuel crisis could cause even fewer trains, cars, and (most importantly) military vehicles to move in North Korea, which already faces severely constrained mobility of people and goods. The descent into pre—modernity continues to spiral down into abject poverty for all but a few of the elite, and even the senior military levels and party members may face disruption of their relatively comfortable lives.

All of these developments have important political ramifications. Also, we do not yet have any idea of what transpired between Kim and the Chinese leadership during his secret visit. More than almost anything else, China fears a nuclear—armed Japan and Taiwan. Japan's reaction to the hostage crisis in Iraq is pushing Japan toward a much more muscular military posture, which must displease Beijing greatly.

Vice President Cheney's recent visit to Beijing may also figure strongly in the strategic equation faced by the Chinese leadership in their dealings with Kim. The subject matter of his talks has remained top secret, but the Vice President is known to be a tough talker, who enjoys the absolute confidence of President Bush, himself a man who is increasingly willing to stand behind his global strategic initiatives. Rumors are flying that Cheney laid down an American policy that China either constrain Kim's nuclear program, or else America would find itself unable to restrain Japanese and Taiwanese nuclear ambitions. These rumors are completely unconfirmed, but not implausible. 

Posted by Thomas  04 22 04