Latest Rasmussen tracking now has Bush up 49—45.  Bush is also further ahead in the 16 battleground states than any time this year, 5.5%. Rasmussen says the Kerry debate bounce appears to be 1%. Rasmussen sticks to a sample with 39% Dems, 35% GOP in his tracking.  So the lead could be bigger.

I think there is some heavy media—generated momentum for Kerry, and Bush has to avoid a disaster in next two debates. Of course, now expectations for Bush doing well will be very low. I think Cheney will do well Tuesday.

Richard Baehr   10 03 04