I follow the Iowa Electronic Market futures election poll. After a few days following the Edwards annoucement in which kerry briefly shot to a modest lead, and then held on a very small lead for a few more days, Bush pulled even, and is now back on top, and pulling away a bit.

If you are below .50, then the odds are against you. if you win, you get paid off at more  than 1 to 1. If you are above .50, then the odds are in your favor, and you will will win less than one dollar for every dollar wagered. Of course in each case, the wnner gets his dollar back.

Posted by Richard  07 14 04