Steve Sailer, who writes for the Website Vdare, and also for The American Conservative Magazine, has done some brilliant statistical analysis of the factors which correlate with Bush's percentage of the vote in the various states.

He has discovered that three factors each have stratospherically high statistical correlation with the percentage of the President's vote: 1) The average years married between ages 18 through 44 among white women in a state; 2) the percentage rise in housing prices from 1980 to 2004 — a negative correlation, so that the higher the inflation, the lower the President's vote share; 3) the average number of babies per white woman. Combining them you can predict the share of vote to an extraordinary degree.

To fully appreciate the depth of his analysis, you will need to follow the hyperlinks and read several of his other pieces. But the thrust of his analysis is unmistakable: Bush receives support from those who form families, buy houses, and have babies, while the Democrats receive support from those who don't.

The long term implications are, of course, staggering. Clearly, policies which make housing cheap, encourage having children, and discourage abortion are electoral poison for the Democrats. There are many others, as well.

Thomas Lifson   12 20 04