Rich Lowry's posts a reasonable and cautious analysis of the prospects for a Bush—Kerry match at National Review Online's The Corner (scroll to Friday, 2:48 PM).  The Rasmussen poll continues to suggest Bush is in trouble —— and Rasmussen is a conservative Republican —— so there is no liberal bias in his numbers.

A West Virginia poll out today shows Bush up by 4— this is very good news for the President. It confirms a week earlier poll with Bush up by 5 in the state. West Virginia used to be a core Democratic state, like Minnesota, another Bush target this year.  It was one of ten states Dukakais won, and was one of only six states that Carter won in 1980.  Bush won its five electoral college votes last time by paying attention to the state (both he and Cheney visited it), by pushing gun owners' rights, and by his opposition to  environmentalists who were hamstringing the coal industry. Gore treated the state as if it were in the bag.
 
The West Virginia poll results fit a pattern so far this year in the border states —— Missouri, West Virginia, Kentucky. These states are behaving more "southern" than  northern. In Missouri, Bush is up 7, more than his 3 point win last time). In Kentucky Bush is up 16.  Bush is well ahead in every southern state except Arkansas, and by surprising margins in some states thought potentially competitive, such as Louisiana, where Bush has a double digit lead (Louisiana is a state which has disappointed Republicans twice in state wide elections  in the past two years). In Arkansas, the polls show the race tied, or Bush with a 2 point lead. It is hard to think that John Kerry will do better than Al Gore in Arkansas, and Gore lost the state in 2000. 

Bush also seems to be doing well in the southwest —— Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico.  John Zogby says Bush is running even with Kerry among Hispanics, much better than he did in 2000 against Gore. I think one of the stories of this campaign could be Kerry's lack of appeal to Hispanics.

New hampshire is trouble for Bush: Kerry ahead 4.  This is one Bush state from 2000 that is better than 50/50 to tip away.

Posted by Richard  05 06 04