Quoted in NRO's The Corner today:

'We simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime.'

The quote above is from Mark Mellman. Mark is a Democratic pollster. And he's very partisan. And he's been working for Kerry this year.

But Mark is no fool and he has a reputation to maintain.

He explains his reasoning at some length in a column in The Hill this morning. He predicts that Bush will get 51.6% of the two—party vote.

By contrast, Jay Cost is predicting Bush will get less than that: 48.63% to Kerry's 46.24%.

Clarice Feldman   11 2 04