Hugh Hewitt writes insightfully in the Daily Standard critiquing the self—absorption and isolation of the Dean campaign. But the numbers show that Dean's self—absorbed supporters may be losing some of their financial head of steam. Dean raised 550 K in 4 days, that is a pace for $12.5 million in a quarter, almost 20% less than the money he raised in Q 3 2003 ($15 million).

My guess is that Dean will end the quarter closer to $10 million raised. So with a growing list of names to solicit, the Gore endorsement, and lots of national attention, he will still raise millions less this quarter than last quarter.

It does not look like they will come anywhere near Bush's $170 million target (Dean has raised less than a third of what Bush has so far). 

However, by opting out of the federal matching funds system, Dean has been able to avoid state—by—state primary spending limits, overwhelming Gephardt's spending in
Iowa, to open up a lead there. This probably insures him the nomination, since Kerry has collapsed in New Hampshire, which follows Iowa.

The latest Gallup polls shows a 6% drop in Dean's support since Sunday among Democratic voters, after a sharp rise in the Dean support level following the Gore endorsement. Nobody else is picking up what Dean lost this week, however.

Basically, some Democrats realize they have nobody, and are now undecided.  And all American registered voters, as measured in  the same Gallup Poll, seem  to like Bush much better than they did a week ago, but also like Dean less. The President is 23 % ahead of Dean in a head to head match—up. This is not likely to last for 11 months, but many in both the country and among Democrats have caught on to an "unlikability " issue with Dean. The Dean "swarm" is oblivious to it, but as Hewitt says, there are true believers, and then there is the bigger country. 

Posted by Richard 12 18 03