The land of fruits, nuts, and fantasy is once again lusting after a high speed rail system, connecting Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, and San Francisco. Just like Europe and Japan, you see. In the face of the gravest fiscal crisis ever confronted by California, rail activists are pushing for a November vote on a massive bond issue to pay for the project.

Don't get me wrong. I love high speed trains. Heck, I love low speed trains, too. I played with trains when I was but a wee lad. When I travel to Europe and Japan, I always make a point of riding the trains, and sometimes even buy a rail pass for a week or so, so as to indulge fully my ferrous fetish.

But this is not the fiscal year to hit the bond markets for an unprecedented chunk of change. And, as the San Francisco Chronicle article today makes clear, there are many problems yet to be addressed in the planning stage.

Cost calculations have already escalated dramatically, from $25 billion to as much as $37 billion since only 1999. And, as anybody who has ever examined a public works project knows, that's just for starters. Boston's Big Dig went from a couple of bil to well into the teens. Little items like 'prevailing wage laws' and change orders in the face of political pressure, not to mention outright corruption, cause costs to shoot up without mercy. The people writing the checks, after all, know that the taxpayers will always cough up more to get the job finished.

Rail advocates also do themselves no favors by promising $50 one way fares (no cost calculations are even possible at this stage), and noting that Japan's Shinkansen bullet trains actually make a profit. The United States is not nearly as densely populated as Japan or Europe, and once we get to our destination, we don't usually hop into a subway or bus, we rent a car. Los Angeles has five airports and the Bay Area has three airports. I travel frequently between the two cities, but almost never from SFO to LAX. Depending on where I am going down south, I often fly into Burbank, Orange County, or another suburban location.

Then, there is the small problem of political fighting over the route of the trains, and especially the location of stations. There's a lot of money to be made from land sales, from parceling out jobs, and from property appreciation (and depreciation — high speed trains are noisy, cause vibrations, and are NOT good neighbors). There are already major fights in California among advocates of various routes and stations, and we're still at the fantasy stage. Once there's real money on the table, it will take years of political rows, environmental impact assessments, lawsuits, political reviews, and messy wrangling. Meanwhile, costs will go up every year, surging at least double the rate of inflation. Plans will need to be redrawn, and, Lord knows, there may be a major earthquake.

In other words, we need to take a deep breath and recognize that we aren't going to see these trains anytime soon.

Let the fantasists make their studies, argue with each other, and truly evolve a good plan. I'll look at the maps and architectural renderings with as much pleasure as the next railfan. But keep the bond measure off the ballot until all of that fighting is over. Only then will we have even a vague idea of the size of the check we'll be writing.

Posted by Thomas   02 06 04