Polling conducted for the Arab American Institute by Zogby International, shows that President Bush is doing significantly worse than in 2000 among Arab—American voters, who comprise approximately one percent of the electorate, but whose high rate of turnout gives them roughly 1.5 percent of the vote, nationally.

This is potentially very significant, given the concentration of Arab—American voters in a few electorally significant states, including expected battleground states such as Florida, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

An open question exists as to whether this shift among Arab—American voters will be equaled or outweighed by a shift towards Bush by Jewish voters  in most of the same states.

In such a closely divided electorate, every swing group wields disproportionate weight. Candidates face the question of whether to pander to such groups, or simply do what seems to be right, and let the chips fall where they may. I would predict that the two major candidates will make different choices.

Posted by Thomas  05 03 04