There will be several winners coming out of Iowa tonight,  and at least one all but certain loser— Dick Gephardt,  even if he were to finish first. Dick Gephardt is not going to get nominated even if he wins the caucuses tonight. It is a little tiring hearing repeatedly about his 'vaunted ' organization in the state. As former Dean supporters in Iowa have turned away from the angry scolding Doctor, they have not turned to Gephardt. The surges in the final weeks have been for Kerry and Edwards.

Gephardt is a tired candidate. I think he is a decent man; rooted, and loyal. He would be a reasonable, less risky general election candidate for the Democrats. He has a glaring weakness on the free trade issue, where he is captive to the industrial unions, who are his primary source of support.  But even if Gephardt wins in a close finish tonight, he has little money, and no momentum. He was expected to win Iowa, and the media won't make him the big story. A victory tonight would be a last gasping breath.

On the other hand, Kerry and Edwards are winners whether or not they finish first. Edwards was a second tier candidate until he stared picking up some steam by launching a 'positive campaign' the last few weeks, and telling everyone he was doing so ('look at me, I'm nice'). His shift, combined with the image of Dean shouting down a 67 year retiree, and the endorsement of the state's biggest newspaper, have given Edwards a real shot at winning  tonight. 

Kerry started attacking Edwards yesterday, suggesting he is a real threat.  An Edwards win would be a gift to the media, which is looking for a fresh face. Edwards is Southern, handsome, and sunny (forget for a moment the trial lawyer history— a career that made him $40 million, but offered no time for any pro bono work). Edwards will become the flavor of the week.  If he wins Iowa, he could win New Hampshire too, with cover stories in the news magazines, and lots of free positive media coverage. Edwards has raised almost all of his money from trial lawyers.

Now that he has become a first tier candidate, the scrutiny will increase, and that will come out. This is not most Americans' favorite profession. But Edwards is now sure to be around for weeks, as the campaign rolls South after New Hampshire.  Karl Rove reportedly thought Edwards would be a very competitive candidate a year ago. After falling off the radar screens, he will get a second look.

Kerry is the comeback kid if he wins or finishes a close second (this is very appealing to me, calling a 60 year old 'kid'). His rebound in Iowa has already helped him in New Hampshire, where his support has doubled in a week, and he is now polling even with Clark, who a week ago ago, led Kerry by ten points and was closing fast on Dean. Kerry and Clark are 6—8 points behind Dean in New Hampshire, but that is not a safe lead in a volatile state, where the Iowa results can provide large bumps.

Clark has had a few weeks to himself in New Hampshire, and succeeded mainly in opening his mouth wide, and sticking both feet in. For a Rhodes scholar, and valedictorian from West Point,  the general has little self— control. He has now moved about as far left, and Bush hating as Dean. We know that because Paul Krugman, perhaps suspecting Dean's imminent collapse, has now anointed Clark as acceptable for those who take their marching orders from the left's control center at Princeton.  Michael Moore got the message, and threw his weight behind Clark.  Clark told one  New Hampshire audience that no terrorism would occur on his watch. Personally,  I think a suicide bomber could strike just about anywhere in America tomorrow, no fault of George Bush or anybody else. We are a large wide open country, and we don't spy on our citizens.  Clark, under scrutiny, will fold up faster than Dean, even with the implicit support of the Clintons as the un—Dean of choice. 

When reporters ask him about glaring inconsistencies between his position now and the one he took a short time ago, he calls it old politics.  It is his misfortune that Kerry has rebounded so well in Iowa. Instead of being down and soon out of  the race, Kerry will be there to shadow both Dean and Clark for weeks.

And then their is Dean.  Clearly many voters are having second thoughts. Dean is no longer a  sure thing for the nomination. His Dean swarm of volunteers from out of state, may lift him to victory tonight, but reporters will call it hanging on', not winning. But even if Dean  finishes a close second, he has the money, and  the ground troops in place in many other states, and is still the candidate most likely to go the distance.

The real winner then tonight is likely to be the candidate not running: Hillary Clinton. Sure, she has taken  her name out of contention. But the Democratic nominating process is fundamentally different than the Republican process. Each state divides its delegates proportionally by the statewide vote percentages (diversity at work). 

So we are now faced with the probability of three to five contenders sticking around for a few months, instead of Dean winning decisively in the first two states, and  clearing the field. It is likely that no candidate will have won  a majority of the delegates to the convention by the time it starts in July. The idea of a deadlocked convention, and a compromise nominee is real, and has enormous appeal to the networks. Hillary won't change her mind about running if the Iraq war is going better an the economy is improving.  She will not risk defeat in 04, when she is a clear favorite to be nominated in 2008. . But if she thinks a victory over Bush is possible, she would accept the nod of her divided party. For her chances may be as good or better in 2004 than  facing Rudy Giuliani for re—election in 2006 for the Senate. Why have to win twice to win the one prize you rally want?

The other sure winner tonight is pollster John Zogby. For having attained a better than average record the past few election cycles, the pundits, and news media, and candidates focus on Zoby's nightly tracking poll, as if Delphi is speaking to them. With about 200 new voters interviewed a night, a shift of ten in the support for one candidate is a five % point swing— great momentum or slippage. This appearance of momentum, or slipping support creates  headline stories of hot candidates and slumping candidates, and is  therefore self—reinforcing. And this then helps determine one party's nominee in a country of 300 million people. Amazing.

Posted by Richard  01 19 04