Arnold Schwartzenegger is the right man for the times in California. Faced with a fiscal crisis of enormous proportions, he has already surprised and partially disarmed his opponents in the Democrat—controlled legislature, mass media, and interest groups like the casino—rich tribes and teacher unions. Against their fundamental instincts, they find themselves compromising, doing business with, and even grudgingly liking the man who came to Sacramento as an outsider promising to shake up a status quo of their making.

There are several distinct elements to the new Governor's ability to outperform expectations:

1)     Personal charm. His charisma is as formidable as his musculature. Hollywood is a highly competitive arena in which schmoozing is an essential power element, and Arnold long ago learned how to work on people whose agreement he needed to realize his goals. Sacramento, for all the magnitude of a $100 billion state budget, is not a glamorous place, and the opportunity to share a cigar, or get a ride on the Gulfstream IV down to LA for dinner with Maria and the kids, before being whisked back home, is something of value which costs the governor no political capital. The evidence is that he is brilliantly executing this very strategy.

2)     A willingness to strategically compromise. California's state politics have been polarized between Democrat and Republican legislators with safe electoral districts, either overwhelmingly liberal or conservative. The Governor, with a powerful mandate from the middle of the spectrum, has stared down both ideological poles. The GOP legislators were upset that his bond issue initiative contains no spending cap, and the Democrats didn't like his deep—sixing of the car tax increase. But they are both living with a half full glass.

3)     His unique weapon: the ability to go to the electorate with initiative, referendum, and recall ballot measures, thereby cutting out the legislature from the lawmaking process. These tools theoretically belonged to every governor of California since Hiram Johnson's time. But, because of his huge popularity, his access to the press (not just the political press, which functions as an interest group in many respects, but also the celebrity press), and his personal fortune (which enables him to quickly gather the necessary signatures), Governor Schwartzenegger is less dependent on the whim of the legislative power brokers than any other governor.

4)     His willingness to brandish carrots and sticks privately, to 'reason together' (as LBJ used to call his arm—twisting sessions) with opponents and obtain their assent, grudging or not, to his plans. In other words, it requires the willingness to use power. He uses points 1, 2, and 3 with the self—confidence of a George W. Bush. He understands what he is aiming to do: a transformation of California's state government, and the corrupt way of doing business which has been the norm in Sacramento for decades. Just like defeating Islamofascism, this takes clear vision, astute use of resources, and lots and lots of guts.

Thus, California has a governor who has gotten the teacher unions to accept a cut in education funding, despite their earlier declarations that such was unacceptable. California has a governor who has succeeded in getting the legislature to approve a massive bond issue to tide over potential insolvency. And California has a governor who will soon get the Indian gambling magnates to cough up hundreds of millions of dollars in new payments to the state, despite 'treaties' which exempt them from such fees.

In a number of ways, Governor Schwartzenegger and President Bush are brothers under the skin. Although their accents and backgrounds could not be more different, both men know exactly who they are, and why they are in a powerful office. They are not afraid to use their power to accomplish ends of the greatest importance.

Stay tuned to this space. We will be covering the moves of one of the most remarkable political figures of the new century with great interest and attention.

Posted by Thomas   01 08 04