Bush has opened up a three point lead on IEM (Iowa futures market), despite Kerry opening up a 5 to 7 point lead post—convention, with a modest 4 to 5 point bounce. Investors are betting it won't last. Since March, every time Kerry has opened up a 3 to 5 point lead, either after good news for him (Edwards pick) or bad news for Bush (Abu Ghraib), it has been short—lived.

A few websites now offer very sophisticated quantitative analyses of state and national polling results. 

The British weekly, The Economist has been offering a look at a different battleground state in each issue,and offering state by state betting odds from http://www.tradesports.com.  Bush is a very small favorite in a few battleground states he won last time —— Ohio, Florida, Nevada and Missouri —— and is the underdog in all the Gore states and New Hampshire, which he won narrrowly last time.

Posted by Richard  8 1 04