Election officials have counted about 2.8 million votes so far in the Washington State governor's race. And the Republican candidate, Dino Rossi, has jumped back into a 19 vote lead.  You read that right — a 19 vote lead over Democrat Christine Gregoire. This race is making Bush's victory over Gore in Florida in 2000 a comfortable win by comparison.

Reportedly, about 6,000 votes remain to be counted, most of them from Republican leaning counties.  However, in the past two days, a state judge opened the door for almost 1,000 provisonal ballots to be reconsidered, and mysteriously, more than 10,000 additional ballots from heavily Democratic King County appeared, which served to wipe out almost all of Rossi's 2,000 vote lead.

Washington is a blue state, and has not voted for a GOP presidential candidate since Reagan. Kerry carried the state by 7% this year, just over 200,000 votes. But in 2000, Democratic nominee Maria Cantwell won her Senate seat from incumbent Republican Slade Gordon by only 2,000 votes. This year's Governor's race will almost undoubtedly end up in a statewide recount, and if the margin is 150 votes or less, with each ballot being hand recounted.
If Rossi wins the race, then Republicans will make up 29 of 50 Governors, a pick up of one (GOP gains this cycle in Indiana and Missouri, and losses in Montana, and New Hampshire). 

The real lesson from Washington State is once again the power of the Libertarian Party to derail Republican prospects.  The Libertarian candidate won over 60,000 votes in the Governors' race, almost certainly denying Rossi a comfortable win. In 1998 in Nevada, in 2000 in Washington State, and in 2002 in South Dakota, Republican Senate victories were transformed into defeats because of a  few thousand votes won by the Libertarians.  Republicans might have 58 or 59 Senate seats now except for this (Jeffords might have had no reason to switch had he not created a Democratic majority in 2001).

Richard Baehr   11 17 04